The income of the vast majority of people comes from the salary they earn by doing a job. With unemployment the economy slows down.
In the first three industrial revolutions there was an increase in initial unemployment due to the replacement of man by machine to increase productivity and reduce costs. Over time, some professions disappeared, others changed and new ones emerged which increased employment.
In the 4th industrial revolution, this has also happened, but the issue is more complex since the changes are very radical, with huge increases in productivity at marginal costs approaching zero. This has meant that, especially after the great economic crisis of 2007/2008 which has led to a large number of redundancies, the recovery, especially in large organizations, has been largely due to the substitution of labour by Capital, that is, by very intelligent systems and machines and considerably lower wages. For this reason, inequality has been growing to alarming levels.
Initially the impact of emerging technologies was felt in the repetitive work of the less skilled workforce. More recently, this impact is already felt in the most qualified workforce and over time, doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and many other qualified professionals will feel the competition effects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems much more efficient and effective in carrying out numerous tasks. In professions where empathy and human-human contact are essential the tendency is for job growth. The same can be said of the professions related to emerging technologies, which normally require basic skills in mathematics, physics, chemistry and biology, and specializations in computing, biotechnology, advanced materials and various engineering branches. Also marketing is a booming area, especially digital marketing, since commercial success largely depends on consumer orientation.
Another aspect worth reflecting on is that the human brain has evolved over thousands of years, while Artificial Intelligence evolves very quickly, and so if we do not take steps to develop appropriate legislation, AI can even take control of our destinies.
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Preparing for the future of Artificial Intelligence
The National Artificial Intelligence Research and development strategic plan
To get work for all (in shifts) the workweek should be reduced to 15 hours by 2030, as Keynes suggested in his 1930 essay (John Maynard Keynes (1930), Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, WW Norton & Co ., New York).
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Economic possibilities for our grandchildren
But we have to go further and move from a society controlled by liberal capitalism to another, also market oriented, but controlled by citizens and called collaborative commons where the formation of networks and the joining of these into a universal matrix will be the infrastructure of society.
In Keynes’s words in 1930, “the technological advances that are anticipated will liberate mankind from the slavery at work, more leisure time means more willingness for people to do what they like.” And this is the opinion of one of the most respected economist of the 20th Century.
Unconditional basic income (UBI) has been under discussion for decades in many parts of the world.
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Universal Basic Income: An idea whose time has come?
Basic income around the world (Wikipedia)
In the May 5th, 2016, referendum in Switzerland, the aim was to introduce the right to a guaranteed basic income. The proposers proposed respectively 2500 and 625 Swiss francs (€2300 and €574) for adults and children. The result was 23.1% in favour and 76.9% against, and the proposal was rejected. However, with the changes taking place, what will be the result of a referendum of this kind in 5, 10 or 15 years? Are Keynes’s predictions for 2030 correct?
According to Thomas Piketty’s 2012 “Capital in the 21st Century” study, in rich and developed countries, in the long run, the growth rate is between 1 and 1.5% per year. The high growth rate in some emerging-economy countries, such as China, is known as catch-up growth and will certainly fall to 1 – 1.5% per year when these economies become developed.
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Just a small example:
There is much talk about UBER and the taxi drivers. However, with autonomous electric vehicles (which are already in circulation in some cities),
Who needs taxi drivers?
And truck drivers?
And driving license?
And a car?
With regard to unemployment, the latest forecasts reported by Citibank in partnership with Oxford University point to the following scenario:
In the United States, 45% of the jobs are at risk due to automation, in the UK 35%, in China 77% and in the OECD countries an average of 57%.
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Robots will steal your job: How AI could increase unemployment and inequality
The relocation of production to countries of cheap labour has the days counted. Robots and Artificial Intelligence are taking over almost everything and at extremely low marginal costs.
Influential thinkers like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking support the urgent introduction of Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) to avoid the worse, that is, populism and its consequences, since the reality here reported is very poorly explained to society in general.
UBI is not a question of socialism or capitalism, for even in the most liberal capitalist system, it is of the utmost interest that people have the money to be able to buy things (goods and services) in order to make the system work.
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Elon Musk: We Need Universal Income Because Robots Will Steal All the Jobs
Stephen Hawking: Automation and AI Are Going to Decimate Middle Class Jobs
White House AI report: Everything you need to know
Watch videos:
Universal Basic Income Explained – Free Money for Everybody?
Why we should give everyone a basic income.
Davos 2017 – A Basic Income for All: Dream or Delusion?
Tesla electric car robotic manufacturing:
Robotization of the e-commerce warehouse QuietLogistics:
Zara Logistics with RFID Technology:
Student who worked in Chinese iPhone factory explains why manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back to the U.S.:
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